The latest edition of the Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios - 2016 Update was published on 14 October 2016.
Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios – 2016 Update (Scenarios 2016) was again commissioned by Gas Industry Co from independent expert Concept Consulting Group (Concept). This Report is the third edition following previous editions in 2012 and 2014.
Concept's Simon Coates presented Scenarios 2016 at Gas Industry Co offices on Thursday, 27 October 2016 and his presentation can be found below.
Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios – 2016 Update
Scenarios 2016 explores gas supply and demand scenarios to understand how New Zealand’s gas market may evolve over the period to 2040. The scenarios in the report are not predictions, but have been developed to understand the possible range of these uncertainties and how various plausible combinations may affect New Zealand’s gas sector.
Scenarios 2016 identifies that gas supply conditions will most likely tighten due to the current low levels of exploration coupled with relatively high levels of demand. The conditions in the market are less certain in the medium to long term, depending on the outcomes of a number of market drivers which are subject to material uncertainty, particularly:
- Future oil prices and the consequent likely extent of exploration effort
- Future CO2 prices, and the consequent impact on gas demand – particularly the extent to which coal- and gas-fired power stations are displaced by renewables
- The future of the Tiwai aluminium smelter, and the consequent impact on power generation demand.
- Population and GDP growth
- Future international gas and petrochemical prices
The Report analyses how different future outcomes for these drivers may affect New Zealand’s gas market.