Gas Industry Co has released a draft study Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios for public feedback. The report has been authored by Concept Consulting, and it updates and extends the Supply/Demand Report published in March 2013.
This study analyses the main drivers for historical gas price and supply outcomes, and the factors that are likely to drive future outcomes. The aim is to provide stakeholders with a broader understanding of the key issues, which can be incorporated into their own decision making processes.
The study has two components: a written report that examines possible market state scenarios for future gas supply and demand; and an Excel-based model that analyses historical demand patterns and can be used to test future scenarios.
Three market supply scenarios are examined in the report: tight gas supply, moderate supply, and plentiful supply. Gas demand by sector is also projected for the petrochemical and power generation sectors, and for other gas uses combined. As peak demand is relevant to pipeline capacity and investment decisions, the report also projects peak demands for each scenario.
The model allows users to input their own assumptions regarding growth rates and to construct scenarios based on their views of such factors as gas supply, electricity generation demand, and carbon price.
We invite stakeholders and interested parties to provide feedback on the report and the model. We would be particularly interested in whether submitters consider:
We ask that any feedback be provided by 5pm Friday, 15 August 2014.
Visit https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B8Fpt8nHFgDZdU1VbzZ6M0pLcjA&usp=sharing and download both files. The model consists of an Excel file and a supporting Access database. The files are compatible with Excel 2007 (and above) and Access 2007 (and above).
Please note that both Gas_dem_sub.accdb and Gas_Dem_v32.xlsm must be downloaded into the same folder. (The Access database is locked but does not need to be open to run.) Also, both files should not be marked as Read-only (to check, right-click the file in the file list, click Properties, then make sure that the Read-only box on the General tab is not ticked).
Gas Industry Co commissioned JT Consulting to conduct a study to investigate the possible extent of demand management among large gas users located on the North pipeline of the Vector system. Demand management is a means by which congestion on a pipeline can be managed, by incentivising gas users to curtail their usage at times of high gas demand. The idea behind the study was to get a baseline indication of the potential amount of demand interruption that currently exists amongst large industrial consumers on the North pipeline.
Interviews were conducted with representatives of 15 of the largest gas consumers on the North pipeline, all of whom consume more than 100 TJ of gas annually. The group of consumers included electricity generators; manufacturers of food, building products, and steel; producers of fresh produce, and health services providers. Some of the interviewed consumers have more than one site on the North pipeline, so that the interviews covered 24 sites in total.
Interview respondents reported the ability to curtail a total of 8.3 TJ in a day, an amount that represents about 10.7% of their average daily gas consumption. If that average rate applied to all large consumers (defined here as consuming more than 50 TJ per year), then it would be possible to curtail about 5% of the largest peak usage experienced on the Rotowaro-North pipeline.
Amongst non-generation consumers, the average amount of curtailment possible is about 37.5%.
These results suggest that demand curtailment is an option worth pursuing in order to maximise the efficient usage of pipeline capacity. Interview respondents generally reported some interest in the possibility of curtailing gas usage in exchange for compensation.
Concept Consulting has amended its gas supply and demand study to include an analysis of the demand on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor. Gas Industry Co has commissioned this addition in response to feedback on the original report. This analysis is contained in Appendix D of the revised report (note that the rest of the report remains unchanged). The analysis develops projections for annual and peak day demands on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor station, taking account of trends in generation demand, coal prices, and carbon dioxide prices.
The modelling tool has been updated to include the Maui pipeline analysis. To download the model, visit: https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8Fpt8nHFgDZdU1VbzZ6M0pLcjA/edit The model consists of an Excel file and a supporting Access database. The files are compatible with Excel 2007 (and above) and Access 2007 (and above).
You will need to download the two files labelled 'Gas_dem_sum.accdb' and 'Gas_Dem_v22.xlsm', you can do this by clicking on them. The folder labelled '20121129 Release' contains the original model and database released in November 2012.
After you have clicked on the file name, you will need to click 'Download'. A window may appear stating it is too large to be scanned - click 'Download anyway'.
The Access file must be saved to the same folder as the Excel file for the model to work properly. Also, both files should not be marked as Read-only (to check, right-click the file in the file list, click Properties, then make sure that the Read-only box on the General tab is not ticked).
The Access document may open automatically and request a password but can be closed as it does not need to be open for the model to work; simply open the Excel file called Gas_Dem_v22.xlsm. The first tab in the Excel file consists of notes about the model and the second tab is a diagram of the model.
Gas Industry Co released a draft report, “Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 – 2027,” for public comment. The report was produced by Concept Consulting Group and was the first substantive look at gas supply and demand in New Zealand. Gas Industry Co commissioned the report to develop a set of national gas supply/demand scenarios, regional gas demand scenarios, and peak demand projections that can assist the industry and large users to assess the need for, and timing of, investment in pipeline infrastructure.
Vector Ltd undertook consultation with industry participants as part of its process to determine available pipeline capacity, particularly as it relates to the North Pipeline. Details of this process are available on Vector's website
The Backstop information gathering and analysis workstream is currently underway. The work is being pursued in parallel to the GTIP and will apply to all areas of Gas Industry Co's work. With respect to the GTIP, this information gathering process (or any regulation implemented for this purpose) has the potential to assist in the development of market arrangements - that could lead to improved availability of information in the market. More information on this work can be viewed here: Policy Development and Information Gathering