Information Projects
- Vector's capacity determination;
- Supply and demand outlook;
- Transmission market disclosures; and
- Backstop information gathering and analysis.
Amended Final Report: Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios
Amended Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 – 2027 (March 2013)
Concept Consulting has amended its gas supply and demand study to include an analysis of the demand on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor. Gas Industry Co has commissioned this addition in response to feedback on the original report. This analysis is contained in Appendix D of the revised report (note that the rest of the report remains unchanged). The analysis develops projections for annual and peak day demands on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor station, taking account of trends in generation demand, coal prices, and carbon dioxide prices.
The modelling tool has been updated to include the Maui pipeline analysis. To download the model, visit: https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8Fpt8nHFgDZdU1VbzZ6M0pLcjA/edit The model consists of an Excel file and a supporting Access database. The files are compatible with Excel 2007 (and above) and Access 2007 (and above).
Download the two files labelled ‘Gas_dem_sum.accdb’ and ‘Gas_Dem_v22.xlsm’ by clicking on them (the folder labelled ‘20121129 Release’ contains the original model and database released in November 2012).
Click ‘Download’. A window may appear stating it is too large to be scanned - click ‘Download anyway’.
The Access file must be saved to the same folder as the Excel file for the model to work properly. Also, both files should not be marked as Read-only (to check, right-click the file in the file list, click Properties, then make sure that the Read-only box on the General tab is not ticked).
The Access document may open automatically and request a password but can be closed as it does not need to be open for the model to work; simply open the Excel file called Gas_Dem_v22.xlsm. The first tab in the Excel file consists of notes about the model and the second tab is a diagram of the model.
Final Report: Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios
Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 – 2027
The report has been produced by Concept Consulting Group and is the first substantive look at gas supply and demand in New Zealand. The report includes national gas supply/demand scenarios, regional gas demand scenarios, and peak demand projections that can assist the industry and large users to assess the need for, and timing of, investment in pipeline infrastructure.
In response to requests from submitters, the final versions of the report and associated model include more information on the data inputs and modelling results:
- The modelling tool (available online; directions for downloading it are below) now includes a separate tab that contains historical and projected data tables. Stakeholders can use these data tables in their own analysis and business planning.
- The analysis of industrial and commercial boilers has also been discussed in greater detail in the final report.
Previously Consulted On
Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027
Gas Industry Co has released a draft report, “Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 – 2027,” for public comment. The report has been produced by Concept Consulting Group and is the first substantive look at gas supply and demand in New Zealand. Gas Industry Co commissioned the report to develop a set of national gas supply/demand scenarios, regional gas demand scenarios, and peak demand projections that can assist the industry and large users to assess the need for, and timing of, investment in pipeline infrastructure.
- New Zealand’s gas supply position is stronger than it has been for many years, driven by the highest level of exploration effort seen for a long time, which in turn has been driven by high oil prices.
- Greater gas availability in recent years has been reflected in softer wholesale gas prices relative to earlier levels (albeit above the ‘low gas price’ scenario). Current indications are that these conditions are likely to continue for some years.
- Long-term gas demand in New Zealand is likely to vary significantly between the different price scenarios, ranging from 250 PJ/year in the low price scenario down to 75 PJ/year in the high price scenario.
- The sectors most sensitive to changes in wholesale gas prices are petrochemical manufacturing (especially methanol production) and power generation. The demand variability in response to gas prices – and therefore supply – acts as a ‘shock-absorber’ to the gas market, providing a volume market for gas when it is plentiful and relatively inexpensive, but reducing demand if reserves become scarce. This helps to underpin gas exploration and development activity and can provide a buffer to extend the remaining life of existing resources if reserves to production ratios start to decline.
- Gas demand for other industrial, commercial and residential users is relatively steady across the scenarios, reflecting the relatively strong competitive position of gas versus alternative fuels for the provision of energy services.
- The existing pipeline system is expected to have sufficient capacity to accommodate the projected scenarios with higher demand, with the exception of Vector’s northern pipeline system (from central Waikato northwards), which has already reached its capacity limit during peak weeks, and it appears that some potential new gas demand is being suppressed in this region through an inability to secure pipeline capacity.
- However, some gas users (e.g. power generators) appear to have relatively low cost options to reduce their usage during peak demand periods. If this potential can be harnessed, the need for costly new investment could be deferred for many years.
Submissions received
Vector Pipeline Capacity Consultation
Vector Ltd has commenced a comprehensive consultation with industry participants as part of its process to determine available pipeline capacity, particularly as it relates to the North Pipeline. Details of this process are available on Vector's website
Backstop Information Gathering and Analysis Workstream
The Backstop information gathering and analysis workstream is currently underway. The work is being pursued in parallel to the GTIP and will apply to all areas of Gas Industry Co's work. With respect to the GTIP, this information gathering process (or any regulation implemented for this purpose) has the potential to assist in the development of market arrangements - that could lead to improved availability of information in the market. More information on this work can be found here: Policy Development and Information Gathering